LATE SURGE LIFTS 2009 GDP PAST FORECAST

LATE SURGE LIFTS 2009 GDP PAST FORECAST


Ardian Wibisono & Muhammad Al azhari
Jakarta Globe Thursday,February 11,2010


Indonesia posted full-year economic growth of 4.5 percent in 2009, slightly higher than the goverment’s forecast, thanks to better-than-expected exports and resilient consumer spending, the central statistic agency said on Wednesday.
The news was welcomed by finance minister Sri Mulyani Indrawati and Hatta Rajasa, the coordinating minister for the economy.
“for sure, the 4.5 percent growth is higher than what the goverment had been projecting at the 4.3 percent. This shows that growth in the fourth quarter was remarkably strong,” Sri Mulyani said.
Indonesia posted year-on year growth of 5.4 percent in the fourth quarter, according to the statistic agency also known as the BPS. That was stonger than the 4.4 percent average prediction from a survey of economists by the jakarta globe.
Fourt-quarter GDP growth was the highest since the third quarter of 2008, when the economy expended by 6.25 percent according to revised data from BPS.
“this will be our basis for reviewing the supporting factors that helped our economy” Sri Mulyani said.
Hatta said that goverment would look to futher stimulate investment, address botle-neck problems and stoke the economy with infrastructure projects.
Indonesia coped better than neightboring economies during the global slowdown because it relies less on exports and consumer spending was boosted by the elections and the goverment’s fiscal stimulus package, said slamet sutomo deputy to the head of the BPS.
“Indonesia is not like singapore. Their economy is 100 percent reliant on exports, so when the global crisis occured, singapore immadiately collapsed” slamet said.
Gundy cahyadi an economist from IDEAGlobal in singapore, sid: “Data came in strong, which is positive for sentiment on the economy, but the modest reaction in market seems to indicate that the market is still very much focused on external rather than domestic forces.”
In 2009 indonesia’s non oil and gas exports totaled $ 97.5 billion, a 9.7percent decline from 2008. The figure was still better than most forecast. Early in the year it was widely predicted exports would plunge 10 percent to 15 percent as a result of the global downturn. In 2008 exports grew 4.9 percent in 2009 from a year ago, slowling slightly from the 5.34 percent pace in 2008. Consumption accounted for 58.6 percent of the country’s gross domestic product in 2009 compared with 60.6 percent in 2008. Exports accounted for 24.1 percent of GDP down from 29.8 percent in 2008. Investment made up 31.1 percent up from 27.7 percent and the contribution from state spending inreased to 9.6 percent from 8.4 percent in 2008.